The Center Cannot Hold

Pakistan has lost what was arguably its best chance for a peaceful transition from the military dictatorship of Pervez Musharraf to a civilian government when a yet-to-be-identified gunman fired on Benazir Bhutto's car and then blew himself up, causing the former Prime Minister to suffer a mortal skull fracture as she was knocked back against the inside of her car. Unsurprisingly, Musharraf's government has laid the blame for this attack on Al Qaeda, but while it remains to be seen whether the fault lies with the militants who assassinated her or with the security forces that seemed unconcerned with actually protecting her, it would not be a surprise to learn that AQ actually had a hand in this.

On September 9, 2001, AQ in Afghanistan blew up another promising figure: Ahmed Shah Masood, the Lion of Panjshir. Like Bhutto, Masood was viewed by many as the sort of character who could bring stability to a country in the grip of great turmoil. Unlike Bhutto, Masood would almost certainly have done so through military force against the then-dominant Taliban, but this is only fitting considering that his background was as a military leader, and hers was as a civil leader.

It is important, at this juncture, for us to remember why the Taliban is unlikely to take over the entire country of Pakistan, no matter how many Pakistani leaders they attempt to assassinate: unlike in Afghanistan, where a divided and fractious Northern Alliance provided the only opposition to the Taliban (and their allies, AQ), Pakistan has, for better or worse, a military wholly united behind one leader, also conveniently, the current President and dictator. So while the Taliban may (correctly) claim to control (or at least operate with impunity within) certain large chunks of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, they have little to no hope of expanding their area of influence. It is also important to remember that even if, by some strange feat of populism, Islamic extremists managed to win elections in Pakistan, the Pakistani military would be loathe to surrender to such a regime the country's nuclear secrets; I expect that contingency plans are in place to shut down these resources should the (unthinkable) scenario above come to pass.

This is still little reason for us to view Musharraf's government with anything but contempt. The man is a dictator in the South American mold; in fact, he's managed to out-do even the lamentably autocratic Chavez in this regard, since Chavez at least did not suspend the Constitution when his bid to become Pres. for Life was voted down by the electorate. The best that can be said for Musharraf is that he is no Nawaz Sharif, but this is damning with faint praise. Sadly, this leaves us agreeing with fellows like Imran Khan, the former cricketer turned politico who's been calling, loudly, for Musharraf's resignation; one is reminded that the enemies of our enemies are still not our friends.

In Pakistan, now, it's hard to tell if we have any friends at all.